Quite a few questions here; first off, eyeballing chart one, "Where Have All the Key Changes Gone?", then the average (of a three year rolling average) number of number ones, in the discrete chart ranking, with key changes from 1960 to about 1997 is roughly 25% or thereabouts.
Which means that 75% or so don't have them. So, those songs ar…
Quite a few questions here; first off, eyeballing chart one, "Where Have All the Key Changes Gone?", then the average (of a three year rolling average) number of number ones, in the discrete chart ranking, with key changes from 1960 to about 1997 is roughly 25% or thereabouts.
Which means that 75% or so don't have them. So, those songs are outnumbered 3-1, a small chunk of the total population. Is this a problem of small numbers? The population is only the number ones, we don't know about top tens, twenties, or the other 99 songs on the chart in each week.
However, there seem (eyeballing) to be three distinct periods, each roughly ten years in length, '65 to '75, average about 30%, pretty stable, '75 to '85, 20% - again stable, then '85 to '95, 25% - but more volatile than the other two.
What's going on there? If the rapid adoption of DAWs, sequencers, is a major driver post-'95, then are there similar changes in production techniques or technology in the previous periods? Seems likely, but do these periods match (lagging?) US recessions? That'd give consumer expectations shifting behaviour.
Something else? There's something akin to a dead cat bounce around 2000/02, then the downward trend to flatlining until when? 2016? Funny old year that.
I think something else has been going on - that song complexity is correlated to buyer expectations of the political and economic environment. Chart two already shows something of a recovery, and I'll bet that continues and accelerates. I'd peg the level back at 20% by 2028. I have no idea whether a new genre would emerge, but I would predict that lyrical content, producer messaging, will shift. A specific example would be a British band, UB40.
I expect that the usage of common time will change as well. I'd have to guess as to whether that might reflect a new genre or not. Not a musician, so I don't have a scooby.
Additionally; over the whole period, has consumer behaviour become more legible to producers, such that they are more capable of optimizing output to the observed behaviour? Streaming would present far more feedback to producers - if my predictions are correct, the shift could be very dramatic indeed - well within the three year window on your rolling average.
Quite a few questions here; first off, eyeballing chart one, "Where Have All the Key Changes Gone?", then the average (of a three year rolling average) number of number ones, in the discrete chart ranking, with key changes from 1960 to about 1997 is roughly 25% or thereabouts.
Which means that 75% or so don't have them. So, those songs are outnumbered 3-1, a small chunk of the total population. Is this a problem of small numbers? The population is only the number ones, we don't know about top tens, twenties, or the other 99 songs on the chart in each week.
However, there seem (eyeballing) to be three distinct periods, each roughly ten years in length, '65 to '75, average about 30%, pretty stable, '75 to '85, 20% - again stable, then '85 to '95, 25% - but more volatile than the other two.
What's going on there? If the rapid adoption of DAWs, sequencers, is a major driver post-'95, then are there similar changes in production techniques or technology in the previous periods? Seems likely, but do these periods match (lagging?) US recessions? That'd give consumer expectations shifting behaviour.
Something else? There's something akin to a dead cat bounce around 2000/02, then the downward trend to flatlining until when? 2016? Funny old year that.
I think something else has been going on - that song complexity is correlated to buyer expectations of the political and economic environment. Chart two already shows something of a recovery, and I'll bet that continues and accelerates. I'd peg the level back at 20% by 2028. I have no idea whether a new genre would emerge, but I would predict that lyrical content, producer messaging, will shift. A specific example would be a British band, UB40.
I expect that the usage of common time will change as well. I'd have to guess as to whether that might reflect a new genre or not. Not a musician, so I don't have a scooby.
Additionally; over the whole period, has consumer behaviour become more legible to producers, such that they are more capable of optimizing output to the observed behaviour? Streaming would present far more feedback to producers - if my predictions are correct, the shift could be very dramatic indeed - well within the three year window on your rolling average.